Recession risks for UK in 2023 worsen

consumer-confidence-oecd

Earlier this summer the Bank of England warned that the UK was heading into the deepest recession in a generation. Yesterday the Bank of England warned the UK was in the longest recession in a generation – a double gloomy prognosis to go with their record-breaking rise in interest rates by 75 basis points from …

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UK Economy’s long-term decline

average-wage-growth-oecd-web

Since the great financial crash of 2007, the UK economy has struggled. Although the past 15 years have been challenging from a global perspective, compared to many international competitors, the UK has slipped behind. Economic growth before global financial crisis of 2007-09 was 2.7%, the new normal is now closer to just 1.5% and with …

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Fall in historical interest rates – and what it means for future rates

historical-interest-rates

Research shows that historical interest rates have been consistently falling, ever since the first interest rates could be measured in the medieval ages. Although there are cyclical fluctuations, there is a consistent long-term trend for real interest rates to fall at a steady rate. The interesting thing is that this phenomenon has been noticed in …

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Britain’s new winter of discontent

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In 1974, the National Institute for Economic & Social Research made a report about the UK economy, concluding: “It is not often that a government finds itself confronted with a possibility of a simultaneous failure to achieve all four main policy objectives: adequate economic growth, full employment, a satisfactory balance of payments, and reasonable, stable …

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How did we end up with a broken housing market?

uk-house-price-to-earnings-ratios

For many people, especially those under 40, the UK housing market appears broken, with excessive prices making it difficult to buy and very expensive to rent. Housing costs are one the biggest factors in a long-term cost of living crisis. The UK isn’t alone, with many advanced economies also facing a broken housing market and …

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Historical Interest Rates UK

UK base-rates-1975-2022

Historical Interest Rates in UK since 1800 Interest rates in the UK since 1800. Bank Rate 1830–1972 and 2006–09, Minimum Lending Rate 1972–81, London clearing banks’ base rate 1981–97, repo rate 1997–2006.  End year observation.

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